World Cup Prognosis

Yes, lots has been going on in the country and outside - in world news highlights, Egypt has courageously 
overthrown a monarch. On the home front, India is grappling with one scam after another. As if CWG, Adarsh, and 2G were not enough, presenting the new, improved - ISRO scam too!

Amidst all this, we have a more pleasant reason to look up the news - the ICC Cricket World Cup is here, and it's no wonder that we Indians love forgetting all the dreadful, avoidable news by immersing ourselves into the one sport that binds all of us. The one sport that gives India a credible chance at being World Champions - Yes, the cricket world cup is here. 

Thanks to 1983, we are always inundated with reruns of the Indian team's 1983 World Cup matches and the interviews of all our stars from that team. This time, the original showpiece event of cricket - the quadrennial Cricket World Cup, is here in the subcontinent after 14 years. So before the event gets underway, I thought of sticking my neck out with what I feel are each team's chances going into this World Cup.

Would be fun to watch how things pan out, come April 2.

And unless you are someone for whom all that cricket means, is only the name of an insect, you might well know that we have 14 teams playing this World Cup, divided into two groups, each comprising 7 teams. Anyway, here's the complete list of all the fixtures for WC 2011.

That having said, let's now get down to gazing through my crystal ball, and predicting the prospects for the World Cup (click the image below, to enlarge the sheet for a better view):

 

First-round eliminations:

Yes, I somehow fancy Bangladesh more than the West Indies to make it to the Quarters. The one big reason is that the Bangla boys are always a force to reckon with, when playing at home. Then, the fact that apart from playing all their matches in front of a rooting crowd at home, they are also blessed with quite a few players who are more suited to their playing conditions, as against the Windies' team. Also, unlike the West Indians, I actually believe that Bangladesh could still beat one of the 3 more fancied teams of its group (in India, SA, and England - apart from ofcourse, looking capable enough to beat the current West Indies team on home ground).

The rest of the teams - Zimbabwe, Netherlands, Ireland, Kenya, and Canada - could play a good match here and there, but it would be a big shock to see any of them progressing beyond the first round.

New Zealand - A4

Good team, but certainly not better than SL, Aus, and Pakistan from their group mates in Group A. Expect them to be A4.

Pakistan - A3

Not better than a rejuvenated Aussie side and cannot be better than a formidable SL team playing all its matches at home. A3.

Australia - A2

Better than all sides except a formidable SL team playing all its matches at home. A2.

Sri Lanka - A1

A formidable SL team playing almost all its matches at home (except against NZ - at Mumbai). Should top their group. A1.

Bangladesh - B4

Already spoken about. Can seriously edge out the Windies, esp since they are playing almost all their matches at home. Unlike Windies, could beat a top 3 team from its group. B4.

England - B3

Not better than SA and India (though not worse than any others in their Group) - cannot see them beating both SA and India. B3.

South Africa - B2

Better than England, Bangladesh (gut-feel and heart say India can only be beaten on an off-day on home soil) - can beat both. B2.

India - B1

Better than all sides except an off day at home. Should (and must) top their group. B1.

Why India must top their Group

If you look at the Quarter Final (QF) lineup, it is stacked against all teams who could easily beat India (or any team) on their day. Among them, the weakest link is the Kiwi line-up. Topping the group would mean we get to play the easiest team in the QF setup, that too, in pretty-much home conditions, in Sri Lanka (somehow, I feel outside of Indian pitches, India would prefer to play in Colombo than in Dhaka, in front of a difficult Bangla crowd, on a pitch that could be ultra-slow even by Indian sub-continental standards). 

QF1: SL Vs Bangladesh

Easy - Despite Bangla's home adv, SL won't take it lightly. The Lankans should be comfortable winners.

QF2: Australia Vs England

Australia - thanks to their mauling of England and superior form. England seems only a better Test-playing nation, not still the ODI champs. Aus also play better in Indian than England do.

QF3: Pakistan Vs South Africa

Hmm - tight. But still, SA have their noses in front. Could be anybody's game.

QF4: India Vs New Zealand

Unless they mess it or someone plays a blinder, the game should be India's - in subcontinental conditions.

Semi Final 1: Sri Lanka Vs South Africa (Colombo, Sri Lanka)

Though SL are a tough side especially at home, SA are the better side - greater batting depth and better bowling.

Semi Final 2: India Vs Australia (Mohali, India)
Hmm - could be tight, but still expect India to make it through. WILL BE TIGHT.

FINAL: India Vs South Africa (Mumbai, India) 

Well, Home Conditions + FINAL + Choking SA =  India! That’s all the heart hopes for!! Amen.
For all we know, it could also be India Vs Pakistan (if Pakistan beat SA) in the FINAL! And yes, who knows what all can happen then!! Would nevertheless be great to see a 2007 T20 WC Final encore - India beating Pakistan in a thriller!! 
Amen!! :)

UDRS: Unable to Decode Reluctance of Sachin

Right then, we are into the World Cup season and it's hard to not think about it every now and then. Especially with its unabated and unabashed promotion through every second news byte or even advertisements.

Before I actually get into talking about the World Cup chances and performances, let me first dwell on something that has long been a mystery to me: India's approach towards UDRS.
I do understand the point that it might not be fool-proof and there could still be the odd 50-50 one or even an incorrect one being dished out to you, even after going with this option.
However, to say that it is useless just because it is not foolproof is laughable, to say the least. What in the world, by the way, is foolproof?
Do we stop driving (fearing that a non-foolproof thing like driving could cause accidents) or stop eating (fearing a non-foolproof bite might choke us)? In short, do we stop living, coz it is not fool-proof anyway either?!

And to beat this, what I surely, totally, do not get at all, is how we can claim to be ready for UDRS, without even having tried it ever in an ODI? Sure, we might still go on to use it well (and I do hope so) but does that mean we adopted the right way to learn using it? - by avoiding it, till it became necessary and avoidable?

We made a hell lot of noise about rotating all the top players in the Indian ODI mix over the last few years for World Cup by trying and testing them with international match practice before (and for) the World Cup - way to go!

Tested and strengthened our bench strength with international match practice before (and for) the World Cup, played and pottered around with Ravindra Jadeja (before patience with Jadeja finally ran out and Yusuf finally paid off) for the No. 7 position, but what about our testing and practicing our tactics and approach when it comes to the UDRS?

Why did we not try it out with international match practice before (and for) the World Cup,when the entire squad should have known how and when to use it?

The most essential bit about UDRS is that we can atleast do away with the blunders that no fair cricketer would want. I’d imagine even a victory feeling would be soured for many fair cricketers and fans, if you find that the match-winning player got away with a howler. As you said, it’s about judicious use of the referrals.

I think India’s reticence stems from the way we used our referrals the only time we ever used it - in India's 2008 Test series in Sri Lanka. And honestly, how Sachin got out to referrals (though Sehwag also was a victim of the referral – that too a 50-50 referral decision going against him, he still supports its usage). India was always at the rough end of the stick in that series – I think we got 2 refs right, as against SL’s 11.

I, like millions, am a Sachin fan, but I suspect even the BCCI is against anything that SRT doesn’t like. As you have rightly brought out, it’s nice to have limited appealing rights and that’s where knowing, using, learning and practising the UDRS usage is all the more important, instead of being a bully in every series and striking the option down.

Doesn’t even portray India as a fair player (and honestly, others are correct if they think so in this rergard) since whatever UDRS is, it is the same for both sides. How can only it be unfair to only India and not the other side (or vice versa), especially when the opposing teams have no objection to (in fact they want and support) its usage?!

Come to think of it, how many people/teams would be in complete support (or even prefer/like!) the dreaded and much-less-clear and much-more-random Duckworth-Lewis method?! But we all go by it, don’t we? I’m sure, UDRS is much better, much more reliable and beneficial and likeable and preferable by all vis-a-vis D-L. No?!

Otherwise too, if you see, specific to WC 2011 plans, even with all the anathema we have had against UDRS, what I find totally useless and stupid is why not agree to use it in all the series we played (Aus, NZ, and SA) and practise usage when, it is clearly and unarguably already known and decided, that even if we agree or not, like it or not, IT IS TO BE USED in the WC!

Hope better sense prevails and ICC gets to decide. For once, I don’t agree with SRT on this.