January 19 will always shimmer in Indian cricket’s memory. In Brisbane on January 19, 2021, a patched‑up India chased 328 to breach Australia’s 32‑year hold over the Gabba, sealing a 2–1 series that few had foreseen after the wreckage of Adelaide. Shubman Gill’s 91, Cheteshwar Pujara’s body‑blow‑absorbing 56, and Rishabh Pant’s nerveless 89* became instant folklore at the Gabba. The romance of that triumph grows when you remember that only a month earlier India had been reduced to 36 all out in Adelaide, their lowest Test total ever, before finding method and belief in Melbourne and Sydney. Five years later, the Gabba’s afterglow illuminates a more complicated portrait. India reached two World Test Championship finals and lost both, saw their once‑impregnable home record punctured across two successive seasons, and were beaten by New Zealand in a first‑ever bilateral ODI series in India. The arc from 2020–21 to 2026 is not a decline so much as a compression of extremes. It demands clear‑eyed diagnosis and a concrete roadmap.
I. A Short Timeline: From Adelaide’s Nadir to Brisbane’s Zenith
The 2020–21 Border–Gavaskar tour began with calamity, continued with resilience, and ended in audacity. Adelaide’s night Test produced a brutal punctuation mark at 36. Melbourne’s response was cool‑headed and methodical. Sydney’s resistance, complete with time‑killing stonewalling, provided oxygen. Brisbane was the breaker of locks and the maker of lore. Facing Cummins, Hazlewood, Starc, and Lyon on a fifth‑day surface, India went for the win when a draw would have sufficed. In the end, Gill reset the tone, Pujara absorbed a day’s worth of body blows to keep the innings on script, and Pant walked the tightrope between risk and control. For a squad strung together by necessity, it was a masterclass in clarity under pressure. The fact that Washington Sundar and T. Natarajan had begun that tour as net bowlers, then debuted and contributed across formats, remains one of the era’s most endearing origin stories.
II. Bookended by Two WTC Finals
Within two years of Brisbane, India contested two World Test Championship finals in England. Each offered a harsh lesson at the summit.
In 2021 at Southampton, New Zealand produced the more precise cricket in a weather‑disrupted final. Kyle Jamieson’s jag‑backers and the discipline of their seam attack kept India hemmed in. The chase of 139 on the reserve day was handled with rare calm. The final ledger read WTC Final 2021, New Zealand by eight wickets.
In 2023 at The Oval, Australia turned the contest in one devastating stand. Travis Head’s tempo‑shifting 163, allied with Steven Smith’s 121, established a scoreboard position India never truly dented. Bowling first, omitting R. Ashwin in helpful early conditions, and then watching the match evolve into a bat‑longer affair proved costly. The chase of 444 was ambitious; the reply of 234, more human. The scoreboard recorded WTC Final 2023, Australia by 209 runs.
Two different opponents, one common theme. Selection and tactical choices at this level require not only an accurate reading of overheads and grass tinge, but a five‑day view of how the pitch will age and how the opposition’s strongest threat will be neutralized across sessions.
III. The Home Fortress and Its Cracks
For the better part of a decade, India at home felt inevitable. Between 2013 and 2023, they did not lose a single home Test series. That aura changed in late 2024 when New Zealand authored a historic 3–0 sweep. India’s batting unravelled in decisive moments and New Zealand’s spin attack, with Ajaz Patel at the forefront, applied consistent, relentless pressure. The third Test in Mumbai crystallized the shift. Patel’s 6 for 57 ended a tense fourth‑innings chase, and the series was gone. A year later, in November 2025, South Africa returned to win 2–0. The margin of defeat in Guwahati, 408 runs, was India’s heaviest at home by runs. Simon Harmer’s 17 wickets across the series at a scarcely believable average reflected a broader truth. Visiting teams had stopped playing India’s spinners as visitors and started playing them as problem solvers, with premeditated plans and depth of methods.
The statistical bite here is sharp because it inverts the long trend. From 2000 through late 2024, India had lost only a handful of home Test series. Two more arrived within fourteen months. That dose of reality should not induce panic. It should provoke reforms in selection, preparation, and role clarity.
IV. New Zealand Again, and a First in ODIs
If 2024 was the year New Zealand scaled India’s red‑ball mountain in India, January 18, 2026 in Indore added a white‑ball first. The Black Caps clinched their maiden bilateral ODI series in India with a 41‑run win in the decider. Daryl Mitchell’s 137 and Glenn Phillips’ 106 powered a total of 337 for 8. Virat Kohli’s 124 was the final act of resistance, but India were bowled out for 296. Headlines noted the milestone: a first‑ever ODI series win in India for New Zealand. One layer beneath that statistic sat the real story. New Zealand controlled the middle overs with discipline and variety, built a 200‑plus partnership in the heart of the innings, and resisted the chase‑phase surge by forcing India to play to the longer side and fewer free hits. The series also doubled as a reminder that Indian cricket’s successes and stumbles are increasingly format‑agnostic. The same virtues and blind spots show up in white‑ball and red alike.
V. What Changed
1) Scheduling compression and red‑ball readiness
India flagged the WTC‑2023 preparation challenge themselves. A full IPL runs on a white‑ball calendar, packed with travel, and with little time for 10 to 12 over red‑ball spells at Dukes lengths. Red‑ball bridges are necessary. In other words, if you want to compete for a five‑day final against a team like Australia or New Zealand in early English summer, you must design labs that cross the short river from T20 loads to five‑day spells and Test batting rhythms.
2) Opposition adaptability at India’s table
New Zealand in 2024, then South Africa in 2025, did not just play spin better. They organized for it. Batting groups worked in pairs and trios, shots were shelved for sessions at a time, and bowlers attacked with control and strike options in tandem. Harmer’s series in India was the proof. Opposition spin attacks not only held, they won sessions. When that happens on Indian pitches, first‑innings control flips and batting under scoreboard pressure in the fourth innings magnifies risk.
3) Transition and identity in red‑ball batting
A full transition of India’s top six is a once‑in‑a‑generation affair, and the pivot is the No. 3 brief. Everything flows from there, including how No. 5 counter‑punches, how No. 6 balances risk, and what you demand of the all‑rounder at No. 7. The run of home defeats did not happen because one opener misfired or because a single youngster stalled. It happened because an engine that once turned first‑innings 310s into 410s began to cough. Re‑defining who absorbs 80 to 100 balls on days one and two is the first domino in a fresh red‑ball identity.
4) Fitness management and depth
The 2020–21 rebound in Australia was powered by depth. Net bowlers became match contributors, and a bench player turned into a series pivot at short notice. That is a system triumph. It also requires continuous replenishment and honest injury accounting. Even the January 2026 ODI series saw Washington Sundar withdraw with rib discomfort. Small withdrawals can have large ripple effects in short series. Redundancy in skill sets is not luxury in modern scheduling, it is necessity.
5) Tactical decision‑making in big matches
WTC finals and home deciders put selection under bright light. In 2021, the Jamieson match‑up went unneutralized. In 2023, the toss and selection gambit leaned into overheads more than five‑day evolution. Lessons learned here are not about blame. They are about process design. The most resilient teams pre‑decide their selection guardrails, model likely pitch trajectories, and then ask if their XI is too attached to the first session.
VI. A Ten‑Point Roadmap for 2026–2027
1) Build formal red‑ball bridges in the calendar
Institutionalize 10 to 14 day red‑ball mini‑camps before overseas red‑ball finals or major away series. Set bowling spell progressions to 6, 8, and 10 overs, mandate Dukes sessions where relevant, and run match‑scenario scrimmages. Align Duleep and Ranji high‑performance windows to serve as live feeders for Test squads, which India began dabbling with in 2024. The bridge from IPL load to Test load should be a well‑lit path, not a leap.
2) Two balanced XIs on paper for every venue
Default to three seamers and two spinners at home, with at least one all‑rounder. Move to a third spinner only where the third significantly out‑values your third seamer across five days. Protect selection from toss optimism. Make selection largely independent of overheads by anchoring to a five‑day pitch forecast. Bake opponent match‑ups into the selection matrix. If a Jamieson type or a Harmer type is the opponent’s leading edge, pick an XI that blunts that edge from lunch on day one to lunch on day five, not only in the first session.
3) Rebuild the No. 3 and middle‑order engine
Define the No. 3 role publicly. The brief is to absorb 80 to 120 balls when needed and to convert early seam movement into sapped energy for the opposition. Pair that with a counter‑punching No. 5 and a No. 6 who can switch from lane holding to lane changing mid‑session. Run India A tours that mimic England and South Africa in miniature, with Dukes balls, cut grass, and 45‑minute spells dedicated to leaving outside off.
4) Spin strategy 2.0
Separate the possession spinner from the disruptor. One controls tempo and keeps the game within reach, the other hunts with angles, pace changes, and release‑point shifts. Plan aggressively for left‑handers. Put leg‑trap, bat‑pad, and short mid‑wicket back into the default menu. Preload fields and ball‑by‑ball lanes for the first hour after lunch, which has been quietly expensive in recent home defeats.
5) Pace sustainability and specificity
Bumrah is the spear, but the armory must be varied. Build a bench where each quick has a distinct question, such as left‑arm angle, wobble seam at 135, reverse‑swing discipline, or a short‑ball spell for six overs that does not leak. Set a usage architecture that staggers Bumrah across cycles, with must‑play series identified in advance. This is not about resting stars. It is about maximizing availability for the series that move WTC points and the ones that build identity.
6) All‑rounder depth as insurance
Spin‑bowling all‑rounders who can average in the mid‑30s with the bat and give 25 to 30 overs across a Test are multipliers in low‑scoring home games. On subcontinental tracks where the first innings is 290 to 330, the difference between 7 for 170 and 7 for 220 often belongs to the No. 7 and No. 8.
7) Decision‑making under uncertainty
Create pre‑toss matrices for selection and bowling lengths. Lock in guardrails 24 hours out and empower a small red‑team whose sole job is to attack the consensus XI with venue data, opposition match‑ups, and pitch‑aging scenarios. When the toss happens, adjust tactics, not personnel. The most reliable way to avoid hindsight traps is to build better foresight rituals.
8) Pull white‑ball learnings back into red‑ball plans
New Zealand’s ODI win in 2026 was built on middle‑overs control and wicket‑taking bursts, not dot‑ball denial alone. Translate that to Tests. Make 30 to 60 run stand breaks a KPI for bowling groups. Practice over‑over plans that evolve every twelve balls, rather than fifteen overs of sameness. When a batting pair settles in at home, change the question, not only the field.
9) Leadership and communication in transition
With the board preferring a single all‑format head coach model, assign specialist lieutenants for red‑ball batting, bowling, and fielding who travel in focused six‑week blocks before and during key series. This preserves the one‑voice clarity while injecting depth and specificity. Keep role definitions crisp and selection messages candid. Transition sticks better when everyone knows the brief.
10) Make Brisbane a blueprint, not a myth
The 2021 Australia tour was not magic. It was system. That system looked like clarity of roles, comfort with debutants, decisive selection, and belief sustained over five days. Hard‑code that into the way India prepare for every major red‑ball assignment. The goal is not to re‑create a fairy tale. It is to make the extraordinary repeatable through process.
VII. Setting Expectations
The immediate task is not reputational repair. It is systems repair. The goals are measurable. Re‑establish first‑innings dominance at home by optimizing XI balance and session‑wise plans, targeting 350 plus in first innings more often than not while aiming to keep opponents under 275. Build a WTC final kit that includes selection guardrails, pre‑event red‑ball bridges, and war‑gamed opposition plans. Treat New Zealand’s 2026 ODI win as a live template for middle‑overs control and partnership disruption. Above all, enforce an internal discipline that keeps selection, preparation, and leadership aligned through cycles.
VIII. Closing Thoughts
The Gabba win lives in the bloodstream because it was audacity in the service of method. India do not need to get back to Brisbane. They need to institutionalize Brisbane. Set the bridges between T20 and Tests. Codify selection logic that is hard to spook. Develop the No. 3 brief with intent. Widen the all‑rounder pool. Vary the spin battery. Then keep one eye on the metric that has always mattered at home and away, across formats and eras. Control the first innings and the last session tends to look after itself.
Jai Ho!
